The West is a Cage Fight
What is left to learn?
Just chattin’ today—I’ll have a much more structured piece later this week. Let’s get to it!
The Denver Nuggets deserve all the respect in the world—so I will give it to them. Okay, well I can’t give them all the respect in the world but I can give them all of my personal respect. And I have a bunch of respect to give so I hope they’re grateful.
But here’s the thing; at least three other Western Conference teams are playing well enough to earn lots of that respect too. Not just that’s a good team-type respect, but that’s a team that can make the NBA Finals-type respect.
Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Los Angeles and (perhaps) Phoenix are all good enough to give me pause before I call Denver the “team to beat” in the West. I still do think Denver is the most likely to win the West — it just won a title so we know it can be done, has nearly the same record through 54 games as last year (37-17 vs. 36-18), kept the same core and that core is mostly playing up to its standards— but I had to pause and think before making that declaration.
And after nights like Monday, my contemplative pause becomes even longer, extending to the point where you’re not actually sure if I heard what you just asked because I’m sitting there for so long looking like:
Right now, I don’t feel comfortable making any prediction regarding the Western Conference playoffs (if you really want one fine, Nuggets over Timberwolves in the WCF, but that made me really uncomfortable and you forced me do it).
Last night, Denver got ran out of the building in Milwaukee, losing to the Bucks 112-95 (wasn’t that close). I’m aware that a road loss on February 12th to a team with lots to prove at the moment shouldn’t sway my opinion about the reigning NBA champs.
But, like has been the case all season, my hesitancy to confidently crown Denver as the supreme team in the West… doesn’t have that much to do with Denver. I know that sounds weird but hear me out; while Denver is about as good as last season (12th in both offense and defense) the challengers have fully transformed themselves into real challengers.
On the same night Denver was walloped in Cream City (nice) the Timberwolves stomped LAC 121-100 in a statement win at Crypto (not as nice) two days after blowing out Milwaukee also on the road. The Wolves are 23-11 against teams over .500—best mark in basketball— and though they’ve faltered down the stretch a few times leading to some weird losses:
… Chris Finch’s team has impressed me rather consistently throughout the season at large. The late-game offense has gotten a little ugly lately, but the Wolves are still 14-9 in clutch situations (within five points with under five minutes left) so it’s not as though they forget how to play basketball when the game is close late. They also still have the best defense in basketball by almost two full points per 100 possessions.
Last year was a fluke; this team wasn’t good and from all accounts, team chemistry was in the toilet. But big-name acquisitions (Rudy Gobert, in this case) often take a little time to mesh in a new setting. If this was Gobert’s first season in Minnesota, I think a lot more people would be willing to call this the best team in the West. (I’m “a lot more people.”)
The Wolves are a bad matchup for everybody— they play so well together on defense, but they also have incredible individual on-ball defenders and an elite rim protector, and when those all work in harmony the result is beautiful. I think the Wolves have the best chance of beating Denver.
1643 miles away (I looked it up), Phoenix is playing like a threat now too. Second-best offense, seventh-best defense over the past 15 games, and it made one of my favorite deadline moves by grabbing Royce O’Neale from Brooklyn.
It was always silly to suggest that Kevin Durant + Devin Booker + Bradley Beal wouldn’t work — in an NBA so catered to the offense, three players capable of reaching the top-tier of scoring (Beal does it less frequently these days, but he’s still a very complete bucket-getter) was always going to “work.”
However, I think it was—and still is—fair to question what exactly this team’s peak is. Yes, it can “work.” Recently, it’s working. Phoenix But if this team runs into Denver, Minnesota or Oklahoma City in the playoffs, will it be able to keep pace with those teams, which all have stars who provide vastly different skillsets from each other? I don’t know… in fact, I don’t think so. At least for now.
Oklahoma City and Los Angeles, meanwhile, just keep trucking along. The Thunder are 36-17 and they’ve posted a few bad losses recently (Detroit, Utah, Dallas by about a million) but I’m going to chalk that up to “young team right before All-Star break malaise.” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably the MVP right now and Jalen Williams has become the most underappreciated star in the NBA very quickly. I know it’s cliche, but OKC is a year early; I think things might get a little shaky in long playoff series against older teams, but this team could genuinely be odds-on title favorites by 2026.
Los Angeles has lost five games since Christmas. I’m not sure what else can be said about the heater this team is on.
Somehow, the Clippers are up to number five in net rating. Not just during this win streak; for the whole season! After the way they started, that doesn’t seem possible, but it’s true.
This guy won’t win MVP, but… put him in the discussion. He’s playing better defense than he has in years and the scoring looks as effortless as ever.
Okay, sure, yeah, the top of the West is good. Now that' we’ve caught up with our contenders, I pose a question:
What Is Left to Learn?
What more do we need to learn about these teams before— and during—the playoffs?
Denver: I think the most important thing to learn about Denver is whether a lack of pressure will lead to relaxed, high-level basketball or a relaxed, “we just won one, whatever” attitude.
Minnesota: We have to learn if there’s enough offensive firepower on this roster to score when games get rugged. My gut says no… my heart says otherwise.
Oklahoma City: Is the “too young to win it all” narrative real? Or has a team just not done it yet? If any team is going to change how folks view team-building, this Thunder team will.
Los Angeles: We need to learn if God has forgotten about us. If Kawhi or Paul George gets hurt during the postseason, then I’m confident in saying yes, he has.
Phoenix: I’m excited to learn whether a team with three score-first players as its three best players can win a championship. When was the last time that happened?
Basically, I just wrote 1000 words to tell you something you probably already know: the Western Conference playoffs are going to be a multi-week, hardcore cage fight. We might see some thumb-tack baseball bats. I can’t wait.