Seven Teams Can Make the ECF (I Think)

Where'd these guys come from?

Imagine:

NBA Opening Night, I ask you how many teams could, hypothetically, make an Eastern Conference Finals run. What do you say? Two teams? Three? Or do you say to me, “I don’t know who you are, please stop looking through my fridge for snacks and leave my home?”

I think a lot of you would have said two teams can make this year’s ECF—the Bucks and Celtics— then gone “eeeeeuuuuughhhhhhhhmmmm” while stroking your long white beard and pondering Philly before finally relenting, “I suppose Embiid and Philly could make it, too.”

Through a few months of the season, that prediction you made (you didn’t make that prediction so this is a hypothetical but it was NBA media’s prevailing opinion at season’s start) looked spot on, too. Boston separated itself from everyone else pretty much instantly, Philadelphia’s two man-game with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid was decimating defenses league-wide (still is) and Milwaukee stumbled a bit to start, but Giannis and Dame’s talent was enough to keep winning… if mostly unconvincingly.

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Let’s jump

ahead a bit. It’s now January 28th and Boston, Milwaukee, Philly still maintain Eastern Conference seeds one, two, and three. But… I think there are seven Eastern Conference who can make an ECF run— and if that was your answer on opening night, I may have called you a heathen.

I don’t believe this tightening of the East is because Boston, Philly, and Milwaukee have fallen apart (well, that last one is up for debate, which is for another day) but instead because Cleveland, New York, and Indiana are coming on strong. And because Miami is still annoying as hell.

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Here’s what happened.

New York and Indiana made moves (and might make more before Feb. 8th) to immediately— and somewhat drastically— improve their rosters. For the Knicks, that move was acquiring OG Anunoby. The former Raptor has been simply wonderful for New York, who is 12-2 with him on the roster. And for Indiana, the move was acquiring another former Raptor, Pascal Siakam, who has been great in his own right for Indiana— and will excel even more when Tyrese Haliburton returns from injury.

New York is one game back of Philadelphia for third in the East. One game! If the Knicks can finish the season in that three spot, they hypothetically wouldn’t have to play the Celtics until the ECF (assuming Boston finishes in first, which I still believe it will.)

Crazily, I think the Knicks can nab that three spot. They’re damn good. On both ends. New York’s defense has been number one (DRTG of 104.5) since acquiring OG— that’s a team effort of course, but Anunoby himself has 100% been the NBA’s DPOTLFG (Defensive Player of the Last Fourteen Games). He just keeps making plays like this:

Anunoby consistently blows up otherwise routine plays for opponents, and his efforts have transformed a good Knicks defense into a ten-armed, super-strong beast that invites you into the Mecca of Basketball and smacks you with wet towels for two and a half hours.

Essentially all of New York’s defensive numbers stand out except blocks (17th) and steals, (15th) neither of which bother me at all because 1) blocks and steals don’t really tell the story of a team’s defensive prowess and 2) the guy who gets all the blocks hasn't been on the court— but might be for the playoffs! Reinforcements are coming for the league’s best defense. Scary hours.

Offensively… Well, I think Jalen Brunson is worthy of an All-NBA nod because of what he’s doing to an offense that I believe would be in Charlotte / Portland / Memphis territory without him. Instead, they do have Brunson, and are ranked eighth in offense for the season (119.6 ORTG). He’s been unbelievable. Add a little more offensive firepower around him (hello Malcolm Brogdon) and suddenly Knicks fans will become far too powerful… on second thought, I’m not sure we want that. Scrap everything.

Indiana, meanwhile

is middling along at the moment (6-6 in its last 12) due to a dietary lack of vitamin T (Tyrese Halliburton, that is). The All-Star point guard has a hamstring injury he can’t quite shake so new addition Pascal Siakam is shouldering a big offensive load (and doing it rather successfully, at least in the past two games.) Frankly, just competing without your superstar deserves commendation.

Even with Hali sidelined, Indiana is just four games back of the three seed— and I envision this Pacers team getting hot hot hot post-All Star. I foresee them trying, really trying, to win as much as possible in the regular season. Haiburton has never won in the NBA and Siakam hasn’t won in a while. Those two, plus the rest of the young, hungry Pacers team (and TJ McConnell) don’t scream “coast during the regular season” to me.

All scoring numbers are wacko this year (and will probably continue to get wacko-er in coming years) so deciding if we can trust what we’re seeing is challenging. Does Indiana really have one of the greatest offenses ever? Mmm, probably not. But it’s still damn good and can hold its own versus anyone. I also think defense is starting to matter less in relation to playoff success. To win the Finals in 2024, you probably still need to be a good defensive team (though even that bar is lowering). To make a conference finals? I absolutely think you can squeak in just being productive on one end— if you’re productive enough, which Indiana is. A 121.2 offensive rating doesn’t lie. 31.1 assists per game doesn’t lie.

Donovan Mitchell

trade rumors were flying. Keyboards clicked and clacked in basements as trade machines whirred with the work of thousands of people who don’t actually care about the NBA, just the drama surrounding it. Sorry, I’ll relax.

Through 25 games, Cleveland was treading water just to stay above .500. A few injuries, a few bad losses, and still the memory of last year’s quick playoff departure wound the public into a frenzy, and folks were convinced that trading Donovan Mitchell now was the only way out of this catastrophe. Forget a playoff run, simply making the playoffs didn’t feel like a sure thing for the Cavs.

The Cavs are now 27-16, just one and a half games out of the three seed themselves… and I think they can get it, too! We shouldn’t be surprised at this team playing well—they were fantastic in the regular season last year, and simply got off to a slow start this year. This is a Damn. Good. Team. Trading Donovan Mitchell now sounds like lunacy. He’s leading this team all the way up the standings in the East—with some help, of course, help that starts with the big guy.

Jarrett Allen likely won’t make the All-Star Game but he’s playing like an All-Star right now. Like OG Anunoby in New York, Allen’s individual defensive efforts make the defensive lives of his teammates infinitely comfier.

Over his last 15 games: 18.5 points, 13.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.1 blocks. And I don’t even think those numbers do justice to how effective he’s been.

If you can, I want you to forget last season’s playoff matchup between the Knicks and Cavs. If you never watched that, would you be skeptical of this Cavs team’s chances to win two playoff series this year? Probably not!

And I know that sounds kind of silly because you did see that playoff series, but… this just feels like a whole new team to me— and it’s doing all of this without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, which might signal something but I’m not ready to get crazy yet.

Miami stinks

and that doesn’t mean a damn thing to me. Counting the Heat out because they’re bad (and they are bad, losers of six straight games) is silly. Lest we forget how bad this team was just one season ago…

I’ll believe this team can make a playoff run until they don’t make a playoff run. And I do love the addition of Terry Rozier, even if it hurts my heart.

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It’s easy to get starry-eyed about the new guys on the block and forget that Boston, Philly and Milwaukee have been the top three seeds all season for a reason… but I really don’t think I’m doing that. New York won a playoff series last season and just added an All-Defense wing. Cleveland is one of the most talented teams in the NBA despite a disappointing exit from last season’s playoffs. Those two teams have the best and second-best net ratings in the NBA since January 1st (and Cleveland has the league’s best net rating since Christmas.) Indiana is led by an All-NBA point guard, and just added perhaps the most underrated star in the NBA. Miami is not good but somehow gains more playoff powers whenever it sucks. Those all sound like ECF caliber teams to me.

Yes, I am aware only two teams can actually make the Conference Finals. But the past few weeks has convinced me that seven teams could do it in a suddenly deep East.

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