Picking Cherries: Advanced Stats That Stand Out to Me

Wait take my picture in front of the cherry blossoms

Nov 30, 2024

Happy Small Business Saturday, go get a latte from your local unionized cafe or a vinyl from your local record shop or pledge a paid subscription to The Broken Press or burn down a Target (joke!)

My last few stacks have been babble fests and you folks seem to like that so I’ll keep those coming, but today we’re looking at some raw. fucking. data.

NOTE: all stats come from NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, and everyone’s new favorite toy, shotcreator.com.

Houston’s Defense Stops Ball Movement at the Source

There isn’t one unfailing route to becoming an elite defensive team in today’s NBA. The 2024-25 Houston Rockets have achieved elite status — Houston has the second-best defensive rating in the league — by fracturing teams into individuals.

Well-oiled machines quickly rust against the Rockets’ pressure. Opponents known for slick ball movement watch their usually-sharp offenses deter into muddy, disjointed excursions. Passing against this does not look fun; Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks or Fred VanVleet are always lurking, scoping out all passing lanes, figuring out on the fly where the shot will come from.

The numbers back this up, too. Houston is sixth in steals and gives up the fewest assists per game (21.0) which is impressive alone. But, theoretically, that leaves room for luck. Maybe guys just happen to miss shots against the Rockets, leading to lower assist numbers.

Nope! In 10 of 16 games, the Rockets have held their opponents under 40 potential assists per game — if that means nothing to you, ZERO teams average under 40 potential assists per game, meaning the Rockets turn most teams they play into the worst passing team in the league.

In 15 of 16 games, Houston has held teams to 46 potential assists or fewer — which would be 18th in the NBA. At best, Houston’s opponents are creating assist opportunities below a league-average rate.

Being this good at preventing potential assists — which are shots that would result in an assist if made — means Houston seldom lets an opponent’s passes beat them to the shooter. Rockets defenders, more often than not, are trying to take away shot attempts, not just challenge them.

Here’s a perfect example of Houston blowing up a potential assist. Whether or not Shaedon Sharpe would have scored here is irrelevant — you can see that he’s gearing up to catch the pass from Deni Avdija and immediately get into his shooting motion, which would count as a potential assist. But Dillon Brooks cuts off the pass by gambling into the passing lane, then Amen Thompson backs him up when Sharpe cuts, leading to a steal. Potential assist denied.

This isn’t luck. Ime Udoka instills ferocity in his defenses and keeps opposing offenses contained by stopping the “productive” passes. A young team being this bought in defensively is a scary sight for opponents, and good TV for the rest of us.

The Grizzlies’ Big Men Make the Most of Their Touches

Well, Memphis is really good again, which was actually obvious all along, but good for them! It’s pretty weird how quickly things move in the NBA because we thought of these guys three years ago how we think of OKC now… I don’t have any thoughts about that, just found it interesting. I digress.

After a weird start which included losses to Chicago and Brooklyn, the Griz have won 11 of 15 and can definitely compete in the West thanks in large part to real depth. Memphis is second in bench points (48.2) behind just Golden State, but I want to talk about something far more niche; how efficient all of the Grizzlies big men are in turning touches into points. Jay Huff, Jaren Jackson Jr and Zach Edey are all in the top six of points per touch in the NBA.

You might make the argument this is because of a system that keeps the ball out of the hands of its bigs, but I disagree — JJJ touches the ball over 46 times per game.

I think this stat exists simply because all of these guys are damn good. Jackson Jr. is having the most efficient shooting season of his career (62% TS), Jay Huff is the surprise of the season (86th percentile points/36) and Edey… well, he’s kind of just 7’4 but he knows how to use those 88 inches.

Sure, why not?

LaMelo Ball is On Track for the Funniest Statistical Season Ever

We’re talking about LaMelo again because he’s putting up some volume numbers that I can’t imagine have ever been put up before. I’m incapable of narrowing this section to a single stat because all of his numbers are hilarious, so I’m going to talk about his entire statistical profile.

Stats: 31.1 points, 6.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 56.4% true shooting, 39.9% USG

I don’t know how to classify LaMelo as a player at this point because he plays the sport so distinctly than any professional I’ve ever watched. Look at this shit:

The most annoying guy at LA Fitness loves trying this shot, but LaMelo actually made it.

Ball is number one in 3PA at 13.1/game (that’s 3 more a night than Steph Curry) and he’s right on pace with 2018-19 James Harden for most threes attempted in a season in NBA history.

He’s also first in the NBA in driving field goal attempts (9.6/game) so while he is launching threes at an almost-historic clip, his three-point rate hasn’t raised that much (52.6% this year vs. 46.7% for his career.) That’s only mathematically possible if Ball is shooting a boat load of shots... and he is! 35.9 field goal attempts per 100 possessions, which unsurprisingly leads the NBA. Shooting 36 out of every 100 times your team has the ball is objectively hilarious.

But he’s receiving the reputation of a shot-chucker (as a pejorative) and I think that’s one of the sillier myths in the NBA. Ball launches shots because he’s surrounded with guys who he (rightfully) doesn’t trust to shoot the ball. His Box Plus-Minus of 5.2 — which would blow away his All-Star season — is bordering an All-NBA mark, and dispels the idea that Charlotte could be any better than this if LaMelo played any differently. Calling LaMelo an “empty stats” guy ignores a chasm of context.

Oklahoma City Has Two Number-One Options

I don’t talk much about who’s over — or under — rated, because the scale shifts depending on which teams you follow closest. If you’re a Magic fan you probably (rightfully) think Franz Wagner is an All-Star, while someone in Boston believes Payton Pritchard is the second coming. That one might be racially motivated, but you get my point.

Jalen Williams, however, is underrated. That will change as OKC keeps winning (they’re 14-4 and blitzing the Lakers early as I type this) but at this juncture, he remains underrated. You might already think he’s good — but I’m saying he’s more than that. More, as in one of the 15 best players in basketball.

Jalen Williams is in the 90th or better percentile in: points (21.6) assists (5.3) blocks (1.0) steals (2.2) plus-minus (6.3) while shooting 40% from three and 61.1 true shooting with a 28% usage rate. That’s the profile of a number one option — he just happens to play next to the best point guard in the NBA, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

How much of Williams’ success comes from playing next to SGA? Some — but I’m not going further than “some.” He doesn’t just receive SGA’s scraps, he creates offense for himself when necessary… that’s just not necessary very often. Williams can be the main option on a good team — not that I want him to be, as I love this OKC team. But calling him a great number two option undersells his game. If the Thunder win it all this year, it’s because they have two lead guards. One of them just happens to play center sometimes.

Clean.

Here’s a thought experiment (just promise you won’t get mad at me for posing the question.)

How much different of a team is Minnesota in two years if you replace Anthony Edwards with Jalen Williams today?

A TBP Original Stat: Points Per Minutes Watched (PPMW)

I won’t lie to you because I respect you too much, but this isn’t a real stat. Well, it’s real in the sense that I made it real three days ago when I was watching Brooklyn beat Phoenix in one of the funniest results of the year (I’m not trying to cheer against the Suns, at face value I have no reason to despise them but my malevolent spirit is making me pray on their downfall) and a player I didn’t recognize was scoring at will.

Tyrese Martin: Not even a competition. Martin has played 133 minutes in his NBA career and I’ve probably watched about 34 of those minutes and 26 of them were on Wednesday when he scored 30 points and shot 8/10 from three-point and was the best player on the floor in a game that featured Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
Ty Jerome: I think Jerome is on everyone’s PPMW list because whenever he’s on the court he’s launching streetball shots and they’re pretty much always going in, evidenced by his 72.4 true shooting percentage, which is sustainable… right?
Scotty Pippen Jr: He’s been a pretty nice surprise for Memphis this year so Pippen Jr. isn’t as obscure as Wilson, but every time I turn on a Grizzlies game he’s doing something productive, which mostly means scoring the ball. NOTE: I did not watch the Grizzlies game tonight and he scored two points, so… 30-piece incoming next game because I’m tuning in.

I really want to know who your leaders are in PPMW. Which NBA player goes off every time you watch them play? Why do you think that is? Could you be their good luck charm? Leave a comment :-)

What I’m Listening to: Backxwash

Yeah I’ll take about 100 more of these thaaank youuuu very much

The Broken Press