NBA Play-In Tourney Viewing Guide
TBP has your back
Someone call Pitbull because the NBA playoffs are here. Okay, almost here. So maybe just keep him on hold. The regular season is over, the play-in starts today, then the playoffs get underway. Before that, I want to break down the play-in matchups, fill you in on the big storyline for each and give my predictions, all of which will, without a doubt, look extremely foolish in approximately four days.
For the record, I’m pro-play-in tournament. I think it accomplishes its goal, which is to see more teams trying to win at the end of the regular season instead of calling in the reinforcements (G-League players). Sure, in its current form, the addition of the tourney means that sometimes we have to sit through Atlanta vs. Chicago and pretend it’s important, but it just as often gives us quality matchups, and sometimes a look at teams that are next up (hello, 2022-23 OKC Thunder.) Heeeeeeeere we go!
#7 Pelicans (49-33) vs. #8 Lakers (47-35)
When: April 16, 4:30 PT
Does a game count as a revenge game when the best players on both teams are trying to get revenge? Does that double the amount of revenge or cancel it out entirely? I’m not sure. Anthony Davis does seem to love getting revenge on his former team, though, even though… he’s the one who created all the drama there. I digress.
New Orleans went 7-7 down the stretch of the regular season but I’m not reading too much into that — bizarre things always happen in March and April. I am reading a lot into the fact, though, that the Pels have great defenders but every time they play the Lakers, the team defense looks drunk chasing around D’Lo and LeBron. I’m not sure if the Pels defensive schemes just don’t work against LA but they just never have answers for back cuts or LeBron + AD P&R.
Also, the Lakers offense is… good now? They’re third in three-point percentage since the All-Star break (still only 17th in made threes but that’s much better than it has been in the past) and are fourth in offensive rating post-ASB, too.
The Big Storyline: LA is 6-2 against New Orleans in the past two seasons, and four of those wins have been by more than 15 points. The Pels kind of crumble at the feet of the Lakers, so it feels like they’re pretty big underdogs even in a game they’re hosting and are the higher seed in. Can they overcome LeBron and the psychological aspect of getting stomped by the Lakers numerous times over the past few years?
No, probably not.
TBP’s Pick: Lakers win, 119-107
#9 Kings (46-36) vs. #10 Warriors (46-36)
When: April 16, 7:00 PT
Sacramento went 2-5 in its last seven games, doing everything possible to make sure it didn’t make the 7 vs. 8 game because the Kings are self-loathing nihlists, or something. However… beating Golden State and effectively ending the Warriors dynasty (if that hasn’t happened already) would exercise some of the Kings’ demons from losing to Golden State in the first round last year, so maybe they planned this out perfectly. They just actually have to win the game now.
That won’t be a breeze, either, because Golden State is kinda hot, winning 10 of its final 12 games. Was that merely a heroic last gasp from a soldier that’s already bleeding out? Possibly. But if the soldier still has a gun… damage can be done. This metaphor tailed off a bit. Don’t give Draymond Green a gun please.
The Big Storyline: Unfortunately, it’s about a guy who won’t be playing. How important will Malik Monk’s absence be? The potential Sixth Man of the Year is out with an MCL injury, leaving a sizable hole in Sacramento’s offense. Monk posted career-highs in points and assists, and the Kings offense lacks some punch when he’s not around, especially late in games.
TBP’s Pick: Warriors win, 119-117.
#7 Sixers (47-35) vs. #8 Heat (46-36)
When: April 17, 4:00 PT
Apparently the theme of this play-in tournament is exercising demons. Jimmy Butler was a Sixer for just 55 games but if you talk to both sides, you’d think he spent his whole life in a loving partnership with Philly and things ended in a fiery blaze. There are still some feelings here, if you ask me— both sides need closure.
Folks love saying that a team “isn’t your average play-in team” but these Sixers actually aren’t your average play-in team. With Joel Embiid, they’re one of the best teams in the NBA, and they have Joel Embiid again, so… you do the math How healthy he’ll remain throughout the playoffs is a question that still needs answering, but he’s looked pretty healthy since his return and I’m confident that for one game against Miami he can dominate.
Speaking of Miami— they’re trying to trick us again. Usually, Miami underperforms in the regular season and then makes some kind of miraculous playoff push. But this year they were okay in the regular season, which means… what? I dunno.
Adding Terry Rozier did help Miami’s offense but it still runs stagnant pretty often. I’m actually a bit surprised this team clawed its way to 46 wins because there were stretches this season where they were hard to watch.
The Big Storyline: Is this The Year for Philly? I’m saying yes because who cares none of this matters we’re all on a slow march towards death anyway. Gotta bear the Heat.
TBP’s Pick: Sixers win, 112-97
#9 Bulls (39-43) vs. #10 Hawks (36-46)
When: April 17, 6:30 PT
I love the NBA and I’m never going to tell you not to watch a postseason game… but if you already have plans for Wednesday night at 6:30 PM, you should follow through with those plans.
However, if you’ve watched the other three play-in games and are fiending for some much worse basketball, then I suppose this is worth a watch. In truth, you could do worse than watching Atlanta’s Trae Young (25.7 PTS, 10.8 AST) — who is easing himself back from injury but is capable of putting on a show in every game he’s part of— square off with Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan, who is always really cool.
The Big Storyline: Honestly, the biggest storyline in this game might be that Chicago is back in the play-in game. The franchise’s apparent content with being kinda bad is thrilling to watch. On the court? Young vs. Alex Caruso is a fun matchup, I suppose. Caruso is one of the most fun on-ball defenders to watch in the NBA.
TBP’s Pick: Bulls win, 107-100.
What I’m Listening To: Weyes Blood
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